Abstract:
Grapes are important fruits which have several benefits. It contains
essential vitamins-A, C, and B6. It is also medicine and ingredient in
making wine. It plays an important role in the Jaffna district as well as in
Sri Lanka. The aim of this study is to explore the stochastic behavior of
the grapes price series during the period of 2007 to 2011. The data used
in this study were collected from Jaffna vegetable markets Centre for the
periods 2007 to 2011. Empirical results of this study shows that the price
has increased with upward trend with fluctuations from RS. 180/kg in
2007 and Rs 300 in 2011. The volatility of the price series was
(SD=41) high. Further, ADF test shows that the price series is a non-stationary
series 1(1), The mean growth for this sample period was 0.8
percent, though, little seasonal variation, , sample evidence does not
support the positive growth. Simple hypothesis test shows that mean
growth of the price is. zero, not statistically significant. (p=0.17). The
growth of the price series behave with leptokurtic distribution (k=9.05).
It is not a normal distribution. Farmers faced uncertain situation. Price
mechanism did not work freely. Kernel distribution shows that it is
negatively skewed. Farmers have not gained much profit. The
forecasting results of this study indicates that the Quadratic model
predict the price series behavior better than the other models such as
liner, exponential growth, Pearl-Reed-Logistic models. Forecasting for
the future 5 months indicates that grapes price will increase in
decreasing trend. Farmers need help from agrarian and marketing
consultants to increase the profit margin of this product.
