Modelling fresh coconuts export using time series approach

Abstract

Coconut is one of major plantation crop in Sri Lanka. About 30 percent of the coconut production is processed into coconut products for exports. This paper analyses and modelling fresh coconut exports from Sri Lanka. For this study, secondary data on the exports of fresh coconuts were used from period of 1981 to 2010. Time series trend analysis, unit root test and Box-Jenkins approach were applied. The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was identified as the best fitted to forecast the fresh coconuts export from Sri Lanka. The error series of the fitted model was found to be a white noise process