Abstract:
In recent years viability of the paddy production sector in Sri lutnka has been a
question because of lack of net profit to the paddy-producing farmers. It has been well
proved by the attitude of the young generation who diverge from the paddy cultivation.
Even though the country could able to reach the self-sufficiency due to increased
average yield and extent of cultivation it failed to satisfy the poor farmers. In this study
an attempt is made to understand the past trends in paddy production in order to find
out the reasons for the above discussed problems and to forecast the future requirements.
Paddy production related variables such as extent sown, extent sown under different
water sources, crop failure percentage, production, average yield, cost of production,
standard of living of the farmers, rice consumption and imports of rice over the time
have been analyzed using simple and complex time series analysis techniques and
other statistical techniques. Future situations have been forecasted from the result of
the analysis.
During the last three decades cost of production increase is significantly higher than
the increase of the selling price of paddy, which affected the standard of living of the
farmers. At present in thefanner's point of view, still thex are cultivating paddy because
of return to their own labor, lack of belter alternative jobs and the lowest investment
for paddy. Therefore to uplift and keep viable the paddy production in Sri Lanka, the
cost ofproduction, scale of cultivation and the market price have to be kept in control
while keep on increasing the average yield. Results indicate that, a farmer to have a
reasonable standard of living in 2006, at least 2.81 hectares to be cultivated by one
farmer and the profit margin should he Rs. 2.32 per Kg paddy produced.
