Abstract:
This study investigates the relationship between dengue infection and environmental
factors in Sri Lanka's Gampaha district from January 2013 to December 2021. The
purpose of this study an accurate early warning system to forecast and respond to
outbreaks promptly. Employing various statistical models and tests, the research
identifies a significant relationship between dengue cases and lagged environmental
variables. The chosen model, validated for stability, incorporates an EGARCH
modification due to ARCH effects. With a high R-squared value of 0.72, indicates that
the selected variables explain a large portion of the variance in dengue cases. Past
dengue cases, rainfall, and temperature positively influence current cases, while past
humidity has a negative impact. The study's implications extend to public health policy
and planning, emphasizing the importance of considering environmental factors in
dengue control efforts throughout Sri Lanka. Additionally, the model can be applied to
other districts and MOH areas for broader disease control strategies.
