Infrastructure's effect on Sri Lanka's post-war tourism growth: a statistical analysis

Abstract

Purpose: This research examines the impact of infrastructure development on Sri Lanka's tourism industry post-war (2009-2024). It aims to determine how infrastructure development affects the industry. It examines the long-run and short run dynamics to better understand this influence. Methodology: This study uses a multiple regression model to examine how multiple independent variables (infrastructure: Road, Sri Lanka) affect a single dependent variable (tourism growth: tourism arrival). The analysis covers 2009–2024, including the crucial years after the Sri Lankan civil war. Statistical tests are used to verify the findings. A correlation analysis and Granger causality tests are used to find causal links and strengths between variables. Co-integration tests determine if the variables have a long-run equilibrium relationship. EViews 12 software analyzes data using these statistical methods. Finding: Co-integration tests show a long-term relationship between tourism and infrastructure. Improvements to infrastructure like roads and transportation systems will benefit Sri Lanka's tourism industry in the long term. A two-way causal relationship from Granger causality tests strengthens this connection. This is important because it suggests that infrastructure development and tourism growth can both encourage infrastructure investment. Practical Implications: This knowledge can help make strategic infrastructure development decisions. Road networks, transportation systems, and other infrastructural facilities must be invested in to improve accessibility, the tourist experience, and Sri Lanka's global tourism competitiveness. Originality/ Value: This post-war Sri Lankan analysis adds to the literature on the infrastructure-tourism relationship. Focusing on significant economic and political transformation, the research provides insights that may not be apparent in longer-term or more stable political studies.